Connector Industry Sales Outlook – June 2021 Update
Bishop & Associates tracks continuing high demand for connectivity products as the rebound continues across all major markets.
Connector industry sales demand remains strong into the mid-point of the year, with bookings up +47.0% and billings up +30.7% through May 2021. These incredibly good numbers are a function of:
- The rebounding world economy as countries begin to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Easy comparisons to the first half of 2020, when the billings were down -10.2% in the early months of the pandemic.
We believe that some of the current demand may also be the result of hedging by companies that are concerned about potential shortages, increasing lead times, and a possible rise in connector prices.
The following table clearly shows that bookings have far exceeded billings each month in 2021.
As shown above, the industry has booked $4,805 million more than the industry has billed through May 2021. Ideally, billings will catch up and exceed bookings in the months ahead and the book-to-bill ratio will drop below 1.0. If this happens, it will signal that manufacturing has caught up and was able to actually make and ship the backlog of orders. Conversely, if billings do not exceed bookings in the future months, it may signal that companies were hedging by over ordering. If this is the situation, connector customers will begin to cancel some of the backlog that is on order.
Connector Industry Sales Zoom Through May 2021
May 2021 was an exceptional month. Sales were up +41.5%, resulting in $6,339 million in sales worldwide. Year-to-date 2021 connector industry sales are $31,308 million, up +30.7%. The following table breaks this down by month compared to 2020 results.
Connector Industry Sales Outlook
Over the past 13 years (2008-2020), the first five months of the year on average have accounted for 40.57% of the full year connector sales. Assuming the historical average, 2021 world connector sales will be $77,170 million, an increase of +23.0% over 2020 sales of $62,727 million.
As we noted in the May Bishop Report, the second half of 2020 was much improved over the first half, which presents the industry with more difficult comparisons. As a result, the industry will probably not achieve +23.0% growth. Our connector industry sales forecast is that the industry will more likely grow in the +15% to +18% range in 2021.
We will continue to watch this closely and report our findings.
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This information originally appeared in Bishop & Associates‘ monthly newsletter, the Bishop Report. Request a free issue of the Bishop Report.